A House In Alaska

I received a fair share of feedback after my last entry, for which I am grateful. I want to clarify a bit more my stance on Joe Biden, which actually composes well with what I was determined to write about in the first place – the Republican VP pick, Sarah Palin.

By no means I consider Joe Biden to be a bad future Vice President. He is in fact the most experienced candidate for this position in a decade I would argue, and certainly the most qualified candidate of the Democratic Party in that time span. However, we must differentiate between the actual position of the Vice President and the “running” for it. I myself call this the candidatorial deficiency of a nominated official.

After he was elected, most of the liberal (and conservative at times, too) media deemed him as a suitable running mate for Obama, mainly for his experience in the realm of foreign policy and for his overt “normalcy”. The pill to be taken by the electorate was of a familiar package to most Americans – a white male who worked his way to the top. I heard only a few things about him before the nomination, but one of them was that he was a real “Bull Terrier” of the Democratic Party, someone who can revert the malaise of Hillary supporters, and independents as well. It seemed nothing could stop the winds of change …

Enter, Sarah Palin.

Palin brought to the race an attribute Biden could never have had – change, ironically. She is unlike most women in big American politics today. Being a mother of a big family, a pro-life activist, a hunter, and a woman of character she swept away the Nancy Pelosi-Hillary Clinton paradigm of a pro-choice feminist leader, mainly, of the Democratic Party. She is a pill for the American aching of today, a pill in a more fun-shaped novelty box than that of Biden.

I heard my fellow liberals say her first speech did not have any specifics and was “same old, same old” (it was actually written by Bush’s speechwriter). True, but who cares about specifics? This is a NRA-loving female hunter who already has her own action figures (I heard there were 3 models already, or was it 2?)! Returning to the matter at hand, she is the anti-Biden. Biden has better Vice Presidential credentials, but she herself is a much better candidate for that office, someone who does not have candidatorial deficiency. In other words, there is a subtle line between skills of campaigning for an office and personal assets of already being in it. She lacks experience (the whole seeing Russia from her window thing is simply humorous, it was compared to a few things like living close to Chevy Chase bank versus being Alan Greenspan). She has experience in budgetary matters, though her exact stance on economy seems to be a calque of McCain’s ideas (with few exceptions).

Nevertheless, she attracts more attention, be it by shock of liberal media at her lack of experience or the praise of the “change” element from the conservative ones. No foreign policy experience? But that is not why McCain chose her.  Her speeches are also more captivating. The “Bull Terrier” seems to have been degraded to a lower niche in this ecosystem – Palin must be a tiger. All this combined with her fascinating personality must cause Biden a lot of sleepless nights recently. He was even called “not exciting” by CNN. But Obama did not choose him to be exciting either! It is Obama who has to be exciting, Biden is supposed to be the practical backbone of the ticket.

If Biden wants to help Obama win he has to be freed from the clutches of the Obama Campaign’s regulators who are afraid to give him too much liberty as he has a history of giving remarks too hastily and often without thought. But he has to challenge Palin on her own battlefield. He has to show that even though he lives in Delaware which is not close to Russia at all, he makes up to it big time. Only after the media start talking about him again and about his speeches will he be able to help Obama. Their struggle is ultimately about what is more important to American people – change (Palin) or experience (Biden) – in a Vice President. They key to victory in these elections lies in the relationship between the patterns of importance of values in the vice presidential campaign related to the presidential race itself. Now that change and experience have been mixed within both tickets, it is the outlaying features, like personalities, that matter the most. As for now it is 1-0 for Palin.

In the next few weeks it will be interesting to see what will change in the campaigns of respective parties. Democrats have to show that change belongs to them, as well as take into possession the popular political discourse (Palin and McCain start to sound more and more like populists, an interesting development in the Republican campaign planning). Republicans cannot allow Democrats to grasp the “change” element in its totality, as well as remind voters that this race is really about McCain and not Palin, so that the fascinating TV sitcom “Palin” will be able to air until November allowing McCain to fly on its popularity right into the White House.

Why Barack Obama Will Lose The Elections

I have been an Obama supporter for some time now, though the reasons for this remain unclear to me. Were I upset by Hillary Clinton’s negative electorate not to be a fan of hers? I’m sure that was a factor. Or was I simply swallowed by the jaws of Obamamania? That probably played a role as about 95% of my friends are Obama supporters. These questions are elusive, yet insignificant. The important fact is that my excitement with Obama has reached its nadir. I still think he would be a better president than McCain, but my faith in his victory vanishes day by day watching the election coverage. Why? Let’s outline a few problems of the Democratic candidate (in fact, of many previous candidates of this party who failed).

First of all, Intellectualism. While listening to Obama speak at various rallies an American undergraduate can often relate to the candidate while he projects the same dualities and uncertainties present not only in 201 philosophy courses but in the entire analytical framework of higher education. Most of Obama’s answers start with “Yes, although…” or “No, however…”. This might be a reason for his appeal to the younger audience which, in schools and colleges all across the nation, is exposed to diversified view points and similar intellectual analogies, probably more than much of the adult nation. Yet the electorate does not only consist of vegetable-eating-V-Day-proponent-human-rights-watchers, but also of the populace which values straightforwardness and, therefore, supports candidates who are able to give brisk, even if faux pas, responses. A friend of mine in high school once reflected why in America people choose leaders to whom they can relate to on a personal level and not educated idealists with lofty plans. It may be a question, but it is also a valid observation. We can relate this to the “Kitty Dukakis Question” in 1988, or to the more recent attempt of John Kerry to go hunting, which, in the end, looked more gauche than sincere.

Second, Race. Obama is an African-American, which, sad as it may be, is too much for many of these rural Nebraska voters to take. Call it racism or xenophobia. Obama-Osama. “So we have to call the White House the Black House now?”. They would not vote for a candidate of any other race than Caucasian regardless of the party affiliation. Unfortunately, this is also the borderline for most of them and not much could be done in this matter. Joe Biden’s role was to diminish this very issue, but this Scranton boy is still the vice presidential candidate, and voters there still see the “popular” Obama as the leader in the ticket (though the aforementioned intellectualism also plays a role here).

This brings us to Vice Presidential Pick.  Joe Biden. The long days of waiting for Obama to announce this name. “I am not the guy,” he said days before his named being pulled from the hat. He was right. I myself was very excited for Hillary being the potential VP pick, but her negative electorate was probably the major reason for Obama campaign moguls not to choose her. But what about Joe Biden? A candidate that run in the primaries receiving 1% of the vote? A candidate remembered for plagiarizing one of his speeches in the 1988 campaign for president? I think Hillary’s negative electorate consists of voters who would vote for a Republican candidate in any case. Her supporters however were the most solid group of followers in the recent years of American politics, an asset she still maintains and will continue to have after the elections. Was Biden a good choice? No.

Lastly, Political Positions (or lack thereof). This directly ties to the first as well as to the third problem with Obama. Obama has been portrayed by many conservatives as the most liberal presidential candidate, which I actually find simply not true. Obama tries to show his stance in issues like abortion and gay rights in his already mentioned “Yes, but…” manner forgetting that this does not attract the Christian evangelicals who like “absolute” values, and at the same time alienates the liberal parts of society who also find these issues important making them stay at home during election day at the worst case. Even Biden’s expertise on foreign relations cannot wash away the fact that Obama and Biden did not agree on issues like the War in Iraq. Obama has not actaully presented that many policy proposals as you would expect from a candidate. The truth is that most candidates do not formulate specific policy plans until they are actually nominated in November, for whatever reasons. McCain is not strong in this area either, something that Obama can use in his campaign. But why I never hear any other topics other than health care, Russia, and energy independence? There are tons of other issues Obama can use to get the edge. Lou Dobbs made a good “Independent Convention” and Obama should pick up a few of the topics discussed on the show, for example rising college tuition rates.

All these points make Obama a kind of out-of-reality candidate for 55% of the nation, which is still enough to seal his fate. One might notice my not-so-accidental failure to mention Sarah Palin. She, however, deserves another more precise entry in the near future.  Judging from all this material my prediction is as follows: Obama will lose the presidential elections of 2008 to McCain/Palin ticket, unless the glamour of Palin will crash in the shady deals and scandals of her previous administration in the Alaskan offices. Obama can share the fate of Al Gore entering the realm of single-issue matters, or the fate of John Kerry continuing to be a good and popular (and rich) senator, but his chances of ever coming back to the ticket are as the chances of Al Gore being the VP candidate this year – not that big after all.

Beginnings

Welcome to Binary Choice, a blog dedicated to crafting opinions about current issues and developments in international politics through the eyes of an IR/History major.

If you have any queries or feedback please contact me at draconis@op.pl.